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Could this be the new UK flag?

Flag without Ireland

Talk of a break-up of the UK has focussed on Scottish independence. But could Northern Ireland be the first to leave?

Although Northern Ireland voted to remain the chances of the six counties with their unionist tradition has always looked unlikely to leave the UK. But might that change if there is no Brexit-lite deal, no access to the free-trade area and border posts along the border with the Republic of Ireland?

It would not present many of the problems Scotland would face have membership of the EU. Northern Ireland would not become independent but transfer its allegiance from London to Dublin. And so remain in the EU.

The Irish Republic already claims the six Counties, there is an apparently good relationship between the NI administration and Dublin, legal ties and citizenship rights as well as strong trade relationships.

Sinn Féin has called for a border poll but is probably putting down a marker rather than expecting anything to happen quickly. Nothing will change quickly but if Brexit negotiations do not go well the prospect of a united Ireland will grow.

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