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Cameron stays in Downing Street: don’t expect electoral reform

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David Cameron stays in Downing Street. The exit poll, which few could really believe, turned out to be very accurate.

As I write the Conservatives are headed to to a overall majority. But that will be a smaller and more difficult majority than that which the coalition with the Lib Dems gave them.

Westminster MPs are going to have a tough time. It will be much more difficult for them to be away from Westminster when a vote is expected.

All the pre-election polls were wrong in showing a very narrow gap between the Labour and the Conservatives. With 627 seats declared the Toy share was 36.6% while Labour was on 37%. But Labour increased its share of the UK vote increased by 1.4% twice that of the Conservatives. The Labour increase was despite its near wipe-out in Scotland.

There is a lot of number crunching to be done to understand this election which also saw UKIP take 12.7% of the popular vote while the Lib Dems slumped to 7.8%. Clearly UKIP did not greatly damage the Conservatives who inflicted terrible punishment on the Lib Dems for their support over the past five years.

On the face of it, these results – a party with just over a third of the vote getting an overall majority in Westminster – reinforce the the case for electoral reform. But the Conservatives who have won with the first-past-the-post are unlikely to propose a change in their Queen’s speech.

As the psephologists get to work we will learn more about who UKIP took their votes from and where the Lib Dem votes went.

The Conservatives now have to decide how they will govern the whole UK. For the defeated Labour party there will be the probable replacement of its leader and how work with the second largest opposition party, the SNP.

Alex Salmond (SNP) will be one of of the biggest beasts on the opposition benches. A new Labour leader will have find a way of working with the Westminster leader of the party which has inflicted such damage of her, or his, party. If they don’t the opposition will be weakened.

We face interesting political times.

 

 

 

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